Here we go again

Decision-Making
A year ago, in a flurry of enthusiasm, I started this blog. Now, a year later, I take up the stream of consciousness again. The subject of choice is still the same – decision-making in general and extreme decision-making in particular.

Rereading Penrose’s 1989 book, the Emperor’s New Mind has inspired me. Decision-making is explicit or implicit in everything that Penrose claims, and the book is interesting both in what it anticipated and what has transpired in the world of computational intelligence since.

The Quintessential Cogntive Function
Needless to say, we make thousands of decisions a day. Our survival depends on it. This makes decision-making the quintessential cognitive function. Fortunately, nature has equipped us with a complex structure – our brain – to do this.

Our brain takes in, sorts, stores, remembers, and processes a constant flood of sensory and symbolic information from our external and internal worlds. It then draws conclusions, makes decisions, and directs our actions. Why is this important?

Decisions and Uncertainty
In an uncertain world, we seek certainty. Decisions provide it. They eliminate alternatives. Reduce choices to one. Do/don’t. Yes/no. And, for better or worse, they commit the decision-makers to a certain course of action. Either you sleep in or you don’t. Either you buy the stock or you don’t. Either you take the job or you don’t.

In the face of uncertainty, as conventional wisdom has it, “Any decision is better than no decision.” But,

“What are the limits to our decision-making powers?”

“What about conscious and unconscious decisions?” “Can we make more than one conscious decision at a time?” And if we can, “How do we do it?”

“What is the difference between good decisions and bad?” “Between right decisions and wrong?”

“Are we the only intelligent agents around?”

Limits to Decision-Making Powers
What about the limits to our decision-making powers? Decisions come in an infinite assortment of shapes and sizes. All are self-similar, but at the same time each one is different. No single decision fits all situations. Each individual decision must be made on its own merits and in its own time. This makes decision-making a never-ending process and stretches our decision-making powers in many ways. This begs the other questions, and opens up a huge area for future discussion.